Why Holochain’s Price could hit 0.26 $ in 2021
Disclaimer: this is not financial advice, I do not recommend buying any cryptocurrencies. These are just my thoughts on the crazy crypto market.
With the recent launch of Holochain’s proof of concept “Elemental Chat” app, Holochain’s HOT token has skyrocketed to a new all time high at $0.0315, marking an incredible gain of over 50x in just 4 months. Currently the token is in a corrective move trading at approximately ~0.02$.
In this article I will explain why I think the excitement is 100% justified, and further why I believe the price could go as high as 0.26 $ by the end of this year.
Why The Excitement?
The most important driver for excitement is the successfull launch of “Elemental Chat”, a fully decentralized peer2peer proof of concept chat app that is completely self hosted by its users. This indeed means that no central authority is required to store, serve or control the data generated by the users. The messages are stored and secured fully autonomously on the users devices, enabling truly private digital communication on a level not even Signal or the most trusted chat apps can compete with. Furthermore, no blockchain is involved in “Elemental Chat”, nor does it depend on the Holo token, the Ethereum network, or any other blockchain.
Currently the app is only available for HoloPort owners but will soon open up for the general public (if don’t know what a HoloPort is? Read more here).
This will be the first time in history of humankind where people can access a fully decentralized app through their webbrowser, not feeling any difference in user experience to centralized “old-school” client-server apps.
Let’s Talk Price
I‘d love to elaborate more on the impact Holochain might have on privacy, data ownership, collaboration and the overall evolution of humanity, but as we are in a crypto currency bullmarket, most people are interested in price and the incredible gains possible. Thus, the last section will focus solely on the price of the Holo token, and what I believe it’s future potential is.
Putting Things Into Perspective
When valuing a disruptive technology, it is worthwile to compare it to historically similar patterns, in order to build a frame of reference. In this case I will compare the current Holochain price action with the price rally of one of the best performing altcoins during the 2017 crypto currency bullrun, XRP Ripple.
Why Ripple?
I believe Holochain will be one of the most exciting and disrupting projects in 2021, because it is a progression of blockchain technology, in the same way as Ethereum was a progression of Bitcoin in 2015.
In 2015 Ethereum unlocked new possibilities that were previously not possible on Bitcoin, in the same way Holochain will unlock new possibilities that are currently not possible on Ethereum.
Under these circumstances, comparing Holochain to one of the best performing altcoins in the previous bullrun, at least to me, seems not too far fetched.
Let’s start with a bit of history: In 2017, Ripple Labs XRP token experienced an astonishing appreciation from 0.0065$ in the beginning of 2017, to 3.36$ by the end of the cycle on January 8th 2018. This is a return on investment of 515x in just as little as 1 year.
This price incease did happen in two mayor rallies, seperated by an approximately three month long 60% correction, as the following chart illustrates:
Holochain Price Prediction
In the beginning of 2021, Holochain was in a similar situation as XRP in January 2017. The Marketcap of both assets was around 100 Million (Holochain) and 230 Million (Ripple). Since then, Holochain completed its first wave 1 (50x) rally, and as of the time of writing, has entered a consolidation phase.
When mapping the history of XRP onto Holochain’s Holo token, one could make the following predictions:
(1) the ongoing correction will take a few more weeks or even months, resulting in a bottom price at 0.0126, which then will mark a -60% correction.
(2) the bottom at 0.0126 will kickstart a second wave hype cycle, which will lead to another 21x gain over a period of multiple months, resulting in a top price at 0.26. This will also mark the beginning of the next crypto bear market.
When zooming into the wave 1 rallies of both assets, one can clearly see the similarities:
Can Holo Token reach 1$ in 2021?
Sure. But my best guess is 0.26 $.
Last Words and a funny GIF
If you find this article to be deleted in 1 year, I was probably wrong 😂
